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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Implied probability 13%−2
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$329k
Liquidity$32k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
0%50%100%13%20 Oct, 05:47 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now13%
25 Oct, 18:50 UTC13%
25 Oct, 17:10 UTC12%
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20 Oct, 05:47 UTC16%

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What counts

For the outcome to be "Yes," Tesla and SpaceX must officially announce a merger or acquisition by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement can come from either company, and partial sales count if they result in a controlling interest (typically over 50% ownership).

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 13%
  • No 88%

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