Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Implied probability 4%−1
24-hour volume$58
Total volume$453k
Liquidity$68k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 20:44 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 09:11 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 08:36 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 14:39 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 11:38 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if North Korea starts a military offensive to control part of South Korea by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this specific invasion does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake general missile tests or rising tensions for an actual invasion.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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