Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 09:32 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 09:04 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 03:57 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 03:13 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Nov, 11:55 UTC | 11% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 12% |
| 31 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 13% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to stop direct fighting and announce this suspension by December 31, 2026. This truce must last for ten full days without substantive breakdowns across the main conflict zone. Readers often mistake temporary pauses or unilateral actions for a valid ceasefire, but only a confirmed mutual agreement counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%
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