Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 27% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 26% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 27% |
| 23 Oct, 09:00 UTC | 26% |
| 23 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 26% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 24% |
| 22 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 11:40 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 05:31 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 04:11 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 18:10 UTC | 17% |
| 17 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 16% |
| 17 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome triggers if Ilhan Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This requires her to be criminally booked, held for court proceedings, or transported to a police station. Readers often mistake the issuance of an arrest warrant or being named in an indictment as sufficient, but these events do not count without actual physical custody.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%
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