Will the National Rally group hold 10 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?
Why it moved: −22 points at 22:47 UTC, after South China Morning Post: French far-right to form first Senate parliamentary group — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 23% |
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What counts
For the outcome to be Yes, a political group representing the National Rally must hold at least ten Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. The count includes full members, related senators, and affiliated senators published by the French Senate on senat.fr. Readers often mistake the October 5 deadline for submitting group lists as the final resolution date, but the actual cutoff is ten days later.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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