NewsMarkets

Markets

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Implied probability 9%−2
24-hour volume$17k
Total volume$734k
Liquidity$49k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
0%50%100%9%17 Oct, 18:10 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now9%
24 Oct, 17:01 UTC9%
24 Oct, 16:15 UTC8%
24 Oct, 15:41 UTC8%
24 Oct, 15:27 UTC8%
24 Oct, 14:12 UTC8%
24 Oct, 13:29 UTC9%
24 Oct, 12:18 UTC9%
24 Oct, 09:22 UTC7%
24 Oct, 08:36 UTC7%
24 Oct, 08:09 UTC7%
24 Oct, 07:27 UTC8%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC9%
24 Oct, 03:30 UTC10%
23 Oct, 17:24 UTC11%
23 Oct, 15:27 UTC10%
23 Oct, 14:16 UTC11%
23 Oct, 13:19 UTC10%
23 Oct, 12:57 UTC11%
23 Oct, 11:48 UTC12%
23 Oct, 11:20 UTC13%
23 Oct, 10:46 UTC13%
23 Oct, 10:24 UTC13%
23 Oct, 09:21 UTC14%
23 Oct, 06:53 UTC14%
23 Oct, 06:25 UTC15%
23 Oct, 05:53 UTC14%
23 Oct, 05:25 UTC13%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC13%
23 Oct, 04:02 UTC14%
23 Oct, 03:41 UTC14%
23 Oct, 02:33 UTC11%
22 Oct, 18:49 UTC11%
22 Oct, 15:28 UTC11%
22 Oct, 14:39 UTC13%
22 Oct, 14:17 UTC13%
22 Oct, 13:04 UTC15%
22 Oct, 12:43 UTC14%
22 Oct, 12:21 UTC15%
22 Oct, 10:53 UTC18%
22 Oct, 10:09 UTC17%
22 Oct, 09:11 UTC18%
22 Oct, 08:36 UTC18%
22 Oct, 06:15 UTC18%
22 Oct, 04:34 UTC19%
22 Oct, 04:27 UTC19%
22 Oct, 03:38 UTC19%
22 Oct, 03:23 UTC19%
22 Oct, 02:54 UTC19%
22 Oct, 02:26 UTC19%
22 Oct, 01:44 UTC19%
22 Oct, 01:29 UTC18%
21 Oct, 23:14 UTC18%
21 Oct, 21:12 UTC18%
21 Oct, 20:57 UTC18%
21 Oct, 20:20 UTC18%
21 Oct, 19:54 UTC18%
21 Oct, 19:17 UTC16%
21 Oct, 18:34 UTC18%
21 Oct, 18:12 UTC17%
21 Oct, 16:29 UTC16%
21 Oct, 15:46 UTC17%
21 Oct, 15:17 UTC18%
21 Oct, 14:55 UTC16%
21 Oct, 14:05 UTC17%
21 Oct, 12:14 UTC16%
21 Oct, 11:45 UTC18%
21 Oct, 10:39 UTC15%
21 Oct, 09:19 UTC16%
21 Oct, 08:51 UTC16%
21 Oct, 07:50 UTC16%
21 Oct, 07:29 UTC15%
21 Oct, 06:30 UTC16%
21 Oct, 06:09 UTC16%
21 Oct, 05:27 UTC16%
21 Oct, 04:52 UTC17%
21 Oct, 04:12 UTC18%
21 Oct, 03:50 UTC19%
21 Oct, 02:41 UTC20%
21 Oct, 01:45 UTC18%
20 Oct, 20:58 UTC19%
20 Oct, 20:24 UTC19%
20 Oct, 18:31 UTC20%
20 Oct, 18:24 UTC20%
20 Oct, 17:39 UTC20%
20 Oct, 16:41 UTC20%
20 Oct, 16:27 UTC19%
20 Oct, 15:58 UTC18%
20 Oct, 15:16 UTC22%
20 Oct, 14:01 UTC24%
20 Oct, 13:37 UTC25%
20 Oct, 12:53 UTC24%
20 Oct, 12:25 UTC23%
20 Oct, 11:19 UTC23%
20 Oct, 09:19 UTC24%
20 Oct, 08:44 UTC24%
20 Oct, 06:02 UTC24%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC24%
19 Oct, 00:37 UTC30%
18 Oct, 23:29 UTC28%
18 Oct, 22:21 UTC27%
18 Oct, 21:48 UTC25%
18 Oct, 17:10 UTC24%
18 Oct, 16:17 UTC25%
18 Oct, 15:29 UTC25%
18 Oct, 12:55 UTC26%
18 Oct, 12:00 UTC24%
18 Oct, 11:19 UTC23%
18 Oct, 10:45 UTC24%
18 Oct, 10:22 UTC24%
18 Oct, 08:34 UTC23%
18 Oct, 08:27 UTC23%
18 Oct, 06:03 UTC23%
18 Oct, 05:56 UTC23%
18 Oct, 04:43 UTC23%
18 Oct, 03:23 UTC24%
17 Oct, 23:10 UTC21%
17 Oct, 21:52 UTC22%
17 Oct, 20:32 UTC21%
17 Oct, 19:25 UTC21%
17 Oct, 18:50 UTC22%
17 Oct, 18:10 UTC21%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

What counts

Anthropic wins if its AI model holds the top spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at noon ET on October 31, 2026. The ranking relies strictly on the 'Overall' text arena with style control turned off and excludes any models marked as 'AutoEval'. Readers often mistake the source of truth for general industry reviews or ignore the specific requirement to disable style control.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 9%
  • No 92%

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Embed this market

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

Stories on this market