Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Implied probability 3%−2
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$80k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 15:26 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 05:26 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 01:00 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 10:12 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 07:10 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 22:15 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 16:09 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 09:39 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 11:14 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 18:15 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 10:37 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 00:13 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 17:04 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 14:51 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 19:03 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 08:01 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 10% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Alibaba owns the Chinese AI model with the highest Text Arena rank at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if any other primarily Chinese company holds that top spot at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution source, which is strictly the arena.ai leaderboard, rather than news reports or other ranking systems.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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