Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$296k
Total volume$2.6M
Liquidity$1.4M
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 100% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 97% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 97% |
| 23 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 97% |
| 23 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 96% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 97% |
| 23 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 97% |
| 23 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 96% |
| 23 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 96% |
| 23 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 96% |
| 23 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 62% |
| 23 Oct, 06:25 UTC | 60% |
| 23 Oct, 05:46 UTC | 57% |
| 23 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 59% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Oct, 04:24 UTC | 59% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 63% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 62% |
| 23 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 66% |
| 23 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 64% |
| 22 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 61% |
| 22 Oct, 23:20 UTC | 60% |
| 22 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 59% |
| 22 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 63% |
| 22 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 69% |
| 22 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 64% |
| 22 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 60% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 59% |
| 22 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 61% |
| 22 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 57% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 25% |
| 22 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 08:08 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 00:31 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 17:12 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 14:39 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 22% |
| 20 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 23% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 22% |
| 20 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 21% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 17% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Russian and Ukrainian officials hold an in-person meeting aimed at diplomacy by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if no such deliberate, publicly acknowledged meeting takes place by that deadline. Readers often mistake indirect talks through mediators or remote calls for valid meetings, but only direct in-person encounters count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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