Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes?
Why it moved: −4 points at 16:29 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Germany’s far-right AfD makes strong gains in two state elections — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Sept, 15:28 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Sept, 14:41 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Sept, 13:16 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Sept, 12:05 UTC | 14% |
| 19 Sept, 22:01 UTC | 14% |
| 19 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 14% |
| 14 Sept, 12:59 UTC | 15% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on the percentage of valid second votes received by the AfD in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election on September 20, 2026. A Yes outcome occurs if that percentage falls between 32% and 35%, while a No outcome applies if it is outside this range.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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