Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Implied probability 20%
24-hour volume$11k
Total volume$17.2M
Liquidity$471k
Resolves8 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 20% |
| 18 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 21% |
| 18 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 21% |
| 18 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 21% |
| 18 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 21% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 21% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 21% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 21% |
| 17 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 21% |
| 17 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 23:15 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 20:10 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 22% |
| 15 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 22% |
| 15 Oct, 14:06 UTC | 22% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election and No otherwise. Resolution depends on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race for the same candidate. If these sources do not agree by January 20, 2029, the outcome is determined by who is inaugurated.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%
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