Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 47% |
| 7 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 41% |
| 7 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 42% |
| 7 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 38% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 30% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Labour candidate wins with a margin of at least 15 percentage points over the second-place finisher. The No outcome applies if that margin is less than 15 percent or if another candidate wins. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but the market resolves based on official results published by Camden Council, not just general news reports.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 47%
- No 53%
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