Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?
Why it moved: +12 points at 10:26 UTC, after CoinDesk: Live updates: Oil falls as Iran signals possible hormuz reopening, bitcoin holds near $86,000 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 95% |
| 22 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 95% |
| 22 Sept, 11:10 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 95% |
| 22 Sept, 10:26 UTC | 94% |
| 22 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 82% |
| 22 Sept, 09:05 UTC | 77% |
| 22 Sept, 07:37 UTC | 77% |
| 22 Sept, 07:09 UTC | 77% |
| 22 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 77% |
| 22 Sept, 00:59 UTC | 76% |
| 21 Sept, 19:35 UTC | 77% |
| 21 Sept, 17:02 UTC | 78% |
| 21 Sept, 08:37 UTC | 77% |
| 21 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 76% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 74% |
| 21 Sept, 04:00 UTC | 73% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 72% |
| 20 Sept, 02:36 UTC | 75% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the Saudi government officially announces that the East-West pipeline is currently operational, including at reduced capacity, before October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to "No" if no such qualifying announcement occurs by that deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%
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