Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?
Implied probability 34%+1
24-hour volume$471
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 34% |
| 23 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 14:32 UTC | 36% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 12:02 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Oct, 07:47 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 05:46 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 36% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 09:11 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Oct, 07:00 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 32% |
| 21 Oct, 22:31 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 32% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 32% |
| 21 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 31% |
| 20 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 30% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the total number of transit calls reported by IMF Portwatch for the Strait of Hormuz between October 19 and October 25, 2026. Yes counts if the total is 25 or more; No counts if it is fewer than 25. Readers often mistake the linked news story about attacks for the source of truth, but only IMF Portwatch data counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 34%
- No 66%
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