Will fewer than 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
Implied probability 0%
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves30 Jun 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 1% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on the total number of tropical cyclones making landfall in China during 2026, as recorded by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) on its official "Landfalling TCs" page. A "Yes" outcome occurs if fewer than five such cyclones are listed; otherwise, it resolves to "No.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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