Will Nicolás Maduro be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

What counts

The market resolves based on who effectively controls Venezuela’s government and armed forces on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Readers often mistake formal titles or international recognition for actual power, but only demonstrable control over the state matters. The final decision relies on a consensus of credible reporting regarding who holds governing authority at that specific moment.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.