Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Why it moved: −7 points at 01:49 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: US Department of Justice expands its probe into Alaska’s US Senate election — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Nov, 20:19 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Nov, 18:21 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 23:16 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 22:39 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 17:34 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 17:11 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 08:57 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Nov, 23:07 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Nov, 19:16 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Nov, 05:04 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Nov, 04:36 UTC | 28% |
| 31 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 28% |
| 31 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 28% |
| 31 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 28% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 29% |
| 31 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 29% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 28% |
| 31 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 18:44 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 15:30 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 26% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, including any required run-offs. It resolves to No if he loses that race. Readers often mistake the deadline for the final vote count instead of the date when all three specified news sources call the winner.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 86%
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