Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
The market favoured Yes at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$289k
Liquidity$28k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 100% |
| 18 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 100% |
| 17 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 99% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 99% |
| 16 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 100% |
| 16 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 100% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Apple makes a foldable smartphone available for public purchase by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The product does not need to carry the iPhone brand name, but an announcement alone is insufficient; it must be purchasable. Readers often mistake the deadline date or assume that a mere unveiling counts as a release.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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