Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 08:26 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 03:28 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 20% |
| 28 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 89% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 89% |
| 28 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 94% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 93% |
| 28 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 81% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if gemini-4-argon-high holds the top rank on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. The resolution relies strictly on the official leaderboard data from that specific source and time, excluding any models marked as AutoEval. Readers often mistake the release date of new models for the resolution deadline or assume unofficial benchmarks determine the winner.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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