China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Chinese and Indian military forces engage in direct combat, such as gunfire or missile strikes, between January 29, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Incidents involving only the Indian Coast Guard do not count because it is not part of the military. Readers often mistake warning shots or non-violent naval maneuvers for valid military encounters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 94%
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