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Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability 98%
24-hour volume$494
Total volume$126k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?
0%50%100%98%22 Sept, 18:58 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now98%
29 Sept, 12:40 UTC98%
29 Sept, 12:18 UTC98%
29 Sept, 11:21 UTC98%
29 Sept, 10:45 UTC98%
29 Sept, 10:23 UTC98%
29 Sept, 09:59 UTC98%
29 Sept, 06:22 UTC98%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC98%
28 Sept, 18:54 UTC98%
28 Sept, 14:06 UTC98%
28 Sept, 12:04 UTC99%
28 Sept, 11:17 UTC99%
28 Sept, 10:28 UTC98%
28 Sept, 09:35 UTC98%
28 Sept, 09:26 UTC98%
28 Sept, 08:46 UTC99%
28 Sept, 07:51 UTC99%
28 Sept, 06:59 UTC99%
28 Sept, 06:24 UTC98%
28 Sept, 04:07 UTC98%
28 Sept, 03:50 UTC98%
28 Sept, 03:26 UTC98%
28 Sept, 02:08 UTC98%
28 Sept, 01:43 UTC98%
28 Sept, 01:28 UTC98%
27 Sept, 23:44 UTC98%
27 Sept, 23:16 UTC98%
27 Sept, 22:04 UTC98%
27 Sept, 18:51 UTC98%
27 Sept, 18:27 UTC98%
27 Sept, 16:16 UTC98%
27 Sept, 15:52 UTC98%
27 Sept, 12:01 UTC98%
27 Sept, 11:06 UTC97%
27 Sept, 09:57 UTC97%
27 Sept, 08:42 UTC97%
27 Sept, 01:55 UTC97%
26 Sept, 18:26 UTC98%
26 Sept, 06:16 UTC97%
26 Sept, 05:24 UTC98%
26 Sept, 04:36 UTC98%
26 Sept, 04:01 UTC97%
26 Sept, 03:31 UTC98%
26 Sept, 03:08 UTC98%
26 Sept, 02:02 UTC98%
26 Sept, 01:54 UTC98%
26 Sept, 00:41 UTC98%
25 Sept, 22:22 UTC98%
25 Sept, 21:48 UTC98%
25 Sept, 21:27 UTC98%
25 Sept, 20:53 UTC98%
25 Sept, 20:25 UTC98%
25 Sept, 19:32 UTC98%
25 Sept, 19:25 UTC97%
25 Sept, 18:22 UTC97%
25 Sept, 16:51 UTC98%
25 Sept, 15:57 UTC98%
25 Sept, 15:27 UTC98%
25 Sept, 14:46 UTC98%
25 Sept, 11:48 UTC97%
25 Sept, 11:29 UTC98%
25 Sept, 10:57 UTC97%
25 Sept, 10:29 UTC98%
25 Sept, 09:57 UTC97%
25 Sept, 08:59 UTC98%
25 Sept, 08:20 UTC97%
25 Sept, 07:49 UTC97%
25 Sept, 07:14 UTC97%
25 Sept, 06:54 UTC97%
25 Sept, 06:03 UTC97%
25 Sept, 03:17 UTC97%
25 Sept, 02:53 UTC98%
25 Sept, 01:13 UTC98%
24 Sept, 23:39 UTC98%
24 Sept, 20:03 UTC98%
24 Sept, 12:42 UTC97%
24 Sept, 12:23 UTC97%
24 Sept, 10:19 UTC97%
24 Sept, 09:49 UTC97%
24 Sept, 08:29 UTC97%
24 Sept, 07:25 UTC97%
24 Sept, 05:28 UTC97%
24 Sept, 04:43 UTC96%
24 Sept, 04:23 UTC96%
24 Sept, 03:39 UTC96%
24 Sept, 03:26 UTC96%
24 Sept, 02:31 UTC96%
24 Sept, 02:25 UTC95%
23 Sept, 23:27 UTC92%
22 Sept, 18:58 UTC92%

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What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if Google does not release a new Gemini Pro model to the general public by September 30, 2026. The No outcome occurs if such a model launches and becomes publicly accessible on or before that date. Readers often mistake closed betas or private access for a valid release, but only models open to the general public count.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 98%
  • No 2%

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