Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
Implied probability 3%−1
24-hour volume$247k
Total volume$485k
Liquidity$2.2M
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 11:13 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 09:34 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 08:59 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 06:37 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 06:15 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 03:19 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 02:51 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 23:23 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 22:09 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 20:58 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 15:19 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 13:48 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 08:22 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 02:15 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 16:22 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 15:53 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 15:24 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 12:33 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 12:16 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 11:55 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 08:54 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 07:18 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 06:36 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 05:47 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 05:11 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 03:19 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 16:36 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 07:39 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 07:18 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 05:26 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 04:14 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Republicans win Kansas and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. The outcome is No if they do not meet that exact combination of wins and losses. Readers often mistake the deadline for when results are called by news sources rather than when states officially certify their results.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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