Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 92% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +92 points at 02:50 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Lewis Hamilton declares love for F1 racing after clinching maiden pole for Ferrari — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 100% |
| 31 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 8% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Lewis Hamilton is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest qualifying time at the 2026 Mexican Grand Prix. It resolves to No if any other driver achieves that result. Readers often mistakenly believe that grid penalties or changes to the starting order affect the outcome, but the resolution depends solely on the official qualifying results.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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