Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$410
Total volume$171k
Liquidity$108k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 21 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 0% |
| 21 Oct, 05:41 UTC | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 0% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 0% |
| 18 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 0% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 1% |
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The 'Yes' outcome occurs if DeepSeek owns the model with the highest rank; otherwise, the outcome is 'No'. Readers often mistake the release of Huawei chip tools for a change in model ranking, but only the leaderboard data determines the result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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