Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?
The market favoured No at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$138k
Total volume$1.9M
Liquidity$0
Resolved31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 0% |
| 19 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 6% |
| 19 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 6% |
| 19 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 9% |
| 18 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 12:28 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 11:40 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 07:21 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 15% |
| 18 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 15% |
| 18 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 18% |
| 18 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 17% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 12:20 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 08:59 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 06:47 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 21% |
| 16 Oct, 08:59 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 20% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series. The No outcome applies if any other team wins or if the Guardians are eliminated before taking the title. Readers often mistake the linked story about the regular season for the final result, but only the actual World Series winner matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →