US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
Implied probability 33%−5
24-hour volume$92k
Total volume$533k
Liquidity$62k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 34% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Nov, 00:51 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Nov, 23:40 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 08:31 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 14:39 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 10:52 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 10:02 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 09:34 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 08:59 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 08:02 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 07:55 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 06:51 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 06:15 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 05:19 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 04:51 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 04:29 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Nov, 03:19 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Nov, 22:09 UTC | 38% |
| 2 Nov, 21:55 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Nov, 21:05 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 20:51 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 39% |
| 2 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 10:07 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Nov, 08:15 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 07:33 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 33% |
| 2 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 18:40 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 14:30 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Nov, 14:09 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 10:36 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 09:15 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Nov, 08:54 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 07:25 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Nov, 04:01 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 20:21 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 40% |
| 31 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 33% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 32% |
| 31 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 32% |
| 31 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 09:45 UTC | 41% |
| 31 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 42% |
| 31 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 41% |
| 31 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 40% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 05:33 UTC | 33% |
| 31 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 32% |
| 31 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 33% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 32% |
| 31 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 22:47 UTC | 40% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 10:43 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 34% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 34% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Oct, 17:04 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States and Iran jointly announce acceptance of a specific deal that increases shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must clearly confirm an existing agreement rather than merely discussing ongoing negotiations or expressing general support.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 68%
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