Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$14k
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$28k
Resolves8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 20:34 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 19:41 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 17:37 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 15:49 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump makes an explicit public statement affirming China's sovereignty over Taiwan during Xi Jinping's visit. The outcome is No if he does not make such a statement, or if Xi fails to enter US territory by the October 7 deadline. Readers often mistake general restatements of the One China policy for an endorsement, but these do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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