Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$474
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$30k
Resolved8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 04:45 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 15:50 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 02:13 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 13:32 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 13:03 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 11:34 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 09:13 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 05:12 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 00:09 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 02:45 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 02:26 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 23:41 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 21:06 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 20:42 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 20:04 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 12:20 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 11:00 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 10:34 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 08:40 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 06:51 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 05:42 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 03:09 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 20:34 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 19:41 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 17:37 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump makes an explicit public statement affirming China's sovereignty over Taiwan during Xi Jinping's visit. The outcome is No if he does not make such a statement, or if Xi fails to enter US territory by the October 7 deadline. Readers often mistake general restatements of the One China policy for an endorsement, but these do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →