Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Why it moved: +16 points at 23:23 UTC, after The Guardian Business: Apple posts stronger-than-expected revenue in first earnings report for new CEO John Ternus — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 00:48 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 53% |
| 2 Nov, 23:30 UTC | 53% |
| 2 Nov, 23:23 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 36% |
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What counts
Apple must hold the second-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the exact moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline or assume any temporary ranking change counts toward the final result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 52%
- No 48%
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