California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
Why it moved: +5 points at 07:41 UTC, after Times of India: Palmer Luckey says staying in California amid tax plan upsets billionaire friends — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 18:06 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 15:14 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 13:32 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 10:09 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 09:47 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 09:06 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 08:52 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 22:39 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Nov, 20:01 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 12:49 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 12:19 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 09:52 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 09:25 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 08:57 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 08:29 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 07:54 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 07:54 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the outcome to be Yes, Proposition 40 must pass with a majority of votes and receive more individual affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 separately. For the outcome to be No, Proposition 40 fails to get a majority or receives fewer votes than either opposing measure individually.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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