Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$11k
Total volume$75k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 06:06 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
Microsoft must hold the highest global market capitalization at the end of trading on October 31, 2026, for the Yes outcome to occur. Any other company taking that lead by that specific time results in a No outcome. Readers often mistake the resolution source for an official government registry rather than a consensus of credible financial reporting.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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