Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026?
Why it moved: +13 points at 19:25 UTC, after businessinsider.com: Congo tells Trump's US to turn privileged access to the world’s largest cobalt supply into real investment as $1.26 billion Lobito railway and Grand Inga dominate talks — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 47% |
| 7 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 47% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 47% |
| 7 Nov, 01:55 UTC | 47% |
| 7 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 47% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 47% |
| 7 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Nov, 23:19 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | 48% |
| 6 Nov, 21:38 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Nov, 20:53 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 32% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if South Africa’s annual consumer price inflation for the 12 months ending in December 2026 falls between 4.7% and 5.0%. The No outcome applies if that specific inflation figure is outside that range. Readers often mistake the resolution date, but the market resolves only when Statistics South Africa releases its official monthly report, not on any other date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 47%
- No 53%
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