Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$3.6M
Liquidity$99k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 19:40 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the market to resolve as "Yes," the Federal Reserve must implement at least one rate cut in 2026, where any reduction between 1 and 24 basis points counts as a single cut. For the market to resolve as "No," no such cuts occur by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, including any emergency actions outside scheduled meetings.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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