Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Why it moved: +38 points at 23:17 UTC, after feeds.bleacherreport.com: Harry Kane, Alexia Putellas Makes History with 2026 Ballon d'Or Award Wins — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Oct, 22:15 UTC | 68% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 68% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 68% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 62% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Oct, 14:03 UTC | 67% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Lionel Messi is ranked fifth in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or list published by France Football or UEFA. If two or more players tie for fifth place, the winner is determined alphabetically by name. Readers often mistake the ceremony date of October 26, 2026, for the deadline, but the actual cutoff is November 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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