Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 18:21 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 12:36 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 10:38 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 10:22 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 08:52 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine publicly pledges not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This pledge counts whether it is a unilateral announcement or part of any agreement with Russia, regardless of when the terms take effect. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2027 or assume that informal discussions without an official Ukrainian announcement are sufficient.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 95%
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