Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Oct, 10:34 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Oct, 09:39 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 16% |
| 25 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 16% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Oct, 22:33 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 21% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Oct, 09:07 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 19:03 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 16:01 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 18% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the market to resolve to “Yes,” there must be a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, officially announced by both countries or confirmed by credible reporting, before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This agreement must constitute a general pause in the conflict, not just specific restrictions or informal understandings.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 16%
- No 84%
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