Will the Democratic Party win the WI-03 House seat?
The market favoured Yes at 89% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$29k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 00:15 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 92% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 18:44 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 89% |
| 2 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 87% |
| 2 Nov, 09:52 UTC | 88% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Democrat wins the Wisconsin third congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins that seat. Readers often mistake the election day of November 3, 2026, for the resolution date, but the market resolves only after credible reporting establishes a consensus or official Federal Election Commission results confirm the winner.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →