Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
Implied probability 35%+2
24-hour volume$240
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves14 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 35% |
| 22 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Sept, 13:34 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Sept, 09:20 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Sept, 08:31 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Sept, 08:14 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Sept, 07:37 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Sept, 02:20 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Sept, 21:03 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Sept, 19:12 UTC | 32% |
| 21 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Sept, 14:29 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Sept, 12:56 UTC | 32% |
| 21 Sept, 12:08 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Sept, 11:37 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Sept, 05:09 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Sept, 05:08 UTC | 18% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if La Bola Negra wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if any other film wins or if La Bola Negra is not nominated when nominees are announced on January 21, 2027. Readers often mistake the Toronto Film Festival win for a decisive factor, but only the official Oscar result matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 35%
- No 66%
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