Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 08:29 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 03:49 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 02:15 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 01:10 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 19:23 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 18:33 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 22:47 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas while losing Michigan and Ohio. The No outcome applies to all other combinations of wins and losses across these seven states. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the resolution source, but the market relies on consensus calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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