Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?
Implied probability 0%
Total volume$126k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 10:16 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 19:41 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 19:05 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 12:47 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
For the outcome to be Yes, Apple must make a foldable smartphone available for public purchase by September 30, 2026. The product does not need to carry the iPhone brand name, but an announcement alone is insufficient. Readers often mistake a press event or news report for a final release, but only actual availability for purchase counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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