Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 06:48 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 10:37 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia’s armed forces launch an air strike or surface-to-surface missile that hits an EU member state before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such qualifying strike occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake intercepted munitions, proxy attacks, or mere threats for a resolution, but only direct Russian strikes count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 92%
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