Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 5-10%?
Why it moved: −7 points at 06:47 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: New Zealand braces for knife-edge election: What you need to know — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 10:10 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 09:25 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 08:21 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 06:47 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 06:47 UTC | 9% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the top two parties differ by 5 to 10 percentage points in valid party list votes. The No outcome applies if that difference falls outside that range. Readers often mistake total votes for party list votes, but only party list votes count toward this margin.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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