Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
Why it moved: +5 points at 05:20 UTC, after The Dispatch: Judging Requires Judgment, Says Justice Alito — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 40% |
| 9 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 34% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Samuel Alito makes an official announcement that he will retire by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The retirement can take effect immediately or at any future date, and the announcement must come from Alito or his official representatives.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 40%
- No 61%
Trade this market on Polymarket →