England vs. Greece: O/U 4.5
The market favoured Under at 54% a day out, but Over won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$26k
Resolved13 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 13 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 100% |
| 13 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 57% |
| 13 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 56% |
| 13 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 56% |
| 12 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 54% |
What counts
The Over outcome requires England and Greece to score five or more goals combined during the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The Under outcome applies if their combined total is less than five goals in that same period. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking extra time or penalties count toward the total when only regular play matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Over 100%
- Under 0%
View this market on Polymarket →