Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$177k
Liquidity$27k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 00:08 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 12:31 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 01:23 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 13:35 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 12:33 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 13:30 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 08:17 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 11:10 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 21:07 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 20:25 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 07:42 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 05:56 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 03:57 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 03:24 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 02:53 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 02:06 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 01:13 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 17:02 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 4% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces physically enter any of the specified districts of Aden by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. Bombardment, naval presence, or diplomatic visits do not count as entry. Readers often mistake threats or claims of entry for actual physical presence.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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