Spread: Indiana (-20.5)
The market favoured Indiana at 53% a day out, but Minnesota won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$44k
Total volume$54k
Liquidity$36k
Resolved31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 53% |
| 31 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 53% |
| 31 Oct, 07:18 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Oct, 02:39 UTC | 52% |
What counts
Indiana wins if it beats Minnesota by 21 points or more. Otherwise, Minnesota wins. Readers often mistake the margin for a simple win/loss outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Indiana 0%
- Minnesota 100%
View this market on Polymarket →