Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
Implied probability 81%+4
24-hour volume$25
Total volume$209k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 81% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 81% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 81% |
| 30 Oct, 18:44 UTC | 79% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 78% |
| 29 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 75% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the S&P 500 has a higher percentage price change than both Bitcoin and Gold during 2026. The No outcome applies if either Bitcoin or Gold outperforms the S&P 500, or if they tie with it. Readers often mistake the resolution source for the S&P 500, which is Yahoo Finance, not MarketWatch or Binance.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 81%
- No 19%
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