Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

What counts

The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The 'Yes' outcome occurs if Amazon owns the model with the highest rank; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Readers often mistake the linked news story about rehiring workers as the deciding factor, but only the leaderboard ranking matters.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.