Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

Implied probability 0%−3

24-hour volume$197k

Total volume$513k

Liquidity$113k

Resolves4 Nov 2026

How the odds moved · Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	0%
4 Nov, 02:34 UTC	0%
4 Nov, 02:26 UTC	1%
4 Nov, 01:57 UTC	1%
4 Nov, 01:27 UTC	1%
4 Nov, 00:58 UTC	2%
4 Nov, 00:29 UTC	2%
3 Nov, 23:53 UTC	2%
3 Nov, 23:10 UTC	2%
3 Nov, 22:49 UTC	3%
3 Nov, 22:19 UTC	3%
3 Nov, 21:57 UTC	3%
3 Nov, 21:26 UTC	3%
3 Nov, 20:19 UTC	3%
3 Nov, 19:50 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 17:51 UTC	3%
3 Nov, 15:50 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 15:29 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 14:32 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 14:25 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 13:48 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 08:32 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 08:25 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 07:48 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 04:51 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 04:29 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 03:40 UTC	3%
3 Nov, 02:23 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 01:54 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 01:24 UTC	4%
3 Nov, 00:26 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 23:51 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 23:23 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 22:54 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 22:17 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 21:55 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 20:44 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 20:16 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 19:33 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 19:26 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 18:56 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 18:27 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 17:41 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 17:04 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 16:27 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 15:56 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 15:27 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 14:56 UTC	2%
2 Nov, 14:03 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 13:56 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 10:07 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 09:39 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 09:25 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 08:57 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 08:08 UTC	2%
2 Nov, 07:47 UTC	2%
2 Nov, 06:49 UTC	2%
2 Nov, 06:14 UTC	2%
2 Nov, 05:53 UTC	2%
2 Nov, 05:09 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 04:54 UTC	2%
2 Nov, 03:28 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 01:02 UTC	3%
2 Nov, 00:40 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 21:19 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 19:52 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 17:42 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 17:27 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 16:36 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 15:08 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 14:45 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 12:55 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 09:28 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 08:25 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 07:59 UTC	3%
1 Nov, 06:36 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 06:15 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 05:47 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 05:04 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 04:36 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 04:29 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 02:22 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 01:31 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 01:24 UTC	2%
1 Nov, 00:14 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 23:53 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 23:17 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 22:43 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 22:00 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 21:39 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 20:57 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 20:21 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 19:59 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 19:17 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 18:19 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 17:49 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 16:58 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 16:29 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 14:08 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 13:31 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 11:57 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 11:21 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 10:30 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 10:06 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 09:59 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 08:56 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 08:28 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 07:53 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 07:11 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 06:57 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 06:15 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 05:33 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 05:26 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 04:35 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 04:14 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 03:52 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 01:32 UTC	2%
31 Oct, 01:18 UTC	3%
31 Oct, 00:24 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 23:55 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 22:54 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 22:26 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 21:09 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 20:51 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 20:15 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 19:20 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 18:37 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 17:20 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 16:32 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 16:25 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 15:43 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 15:28 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 14:16 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 13:13 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 12:45 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 12:24 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 11:59 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 11:24 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 10:43 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 06:28 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 04:36 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 03:02 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 02:55 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 01:03 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 00:56 UTC	3%
30 Oct, 00:28 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 23:40 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 23:26 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 21:00 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 20:46 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 20:16 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 19:57 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 18:06 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 17:26 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 16:57 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 16:15 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 15:38 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 15:22 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 14:40 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 14:07 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 13:46 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 13:29 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 12:59 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 12:11 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 11:56 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 11:20 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 10:58 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 10:26 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 09:55 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 09:12 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 08:43 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 08:26 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 07:05 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 06:44 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 06:04 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 05:03 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 03:49 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 03:28 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 02:35 UTC	3%
29 Oct, 02:20 UTC	4%
29 Oct, 00:20 UTC	3%
28 Oct, 23:40 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 23:26 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 22:46 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 22:25 UTC	3%
28 Oct, 21:49 UTC	3%
28 Oct, 21:15 UTC	3%
28 Oct, 20:59 UTC	3%
28 Oct, 20:09 UTC	3%
28 Oct, 19:48 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 19:26 UTC	3%
28 Oct, 18:59 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 18:29 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 17:38 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 17:09 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 16:59 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 16:10 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 15:55 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 15:26 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 14:14 UTC	5%
28 Oct, 13:57 UTC	5%
28 Oct, 12:57 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 12:29 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 11:45 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 11:24 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 10:56 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 10:16 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 09:55 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 09:10 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 08:56 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 08:29 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 07:56 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 07:22 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 06:43 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 05:58 UTC	4%
28 Oct, 05:19 UTC	5%

Does the market have this right?

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What counts

The market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. For 'Yes' to occur, a Republican nominee must win; for 'No', any other candidate must win. Readers often mistake the linked story about a New Jersey governor as relevant, but only the NY election result matters.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

Yes 0%
No 100%

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Stories on this market

New York Governor Election Results: Hochul vs. Blakeman politics