Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 25?
Why it moved: +80 points at 06:12 UTC, after News - South China Morning Post: 1 million Hong Kong employees to get ‘full portability’ of MPF funds in December — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 25 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 100% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 100% |
| 25 Oct, 06:12 UTC | 99% |
| 24 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 19% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on October 25, 2026. The outcome depends on whether that specific daily minimum falls within the bracket containing 24°C. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but only the initial publication in the Observatory's Daily Extract counts, not later revisions or other weather reports.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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