Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
Implied probability 8%
24-hour volume$40
Total volume$50k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 03:58 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 12:40 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate hits 4.5% or higher at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if that level never occurs within this timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2027 instead of late 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%
Trade this market on Polymarket →