Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?
Why it moved: −90 points at 11:20 UTC, after WIRED: An AI Breakthrough Has Made Decades of Computer Science Research ‘Irrelevant’ — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 11:05 UTC | 93% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on which company holds the second-highest Lab Rank on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the linked lawsuit for a ranking factor, but only the specific leaderboard data determines the outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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